Tim Petska, The Joseph Group - Economic Outloook

RECOGNITION
 
Thomas Kleven, Rotary Assistant District Governor recognized our club's twenty winners of the 125 Club member pins.  To become a 125 Club member, Rotarians must contribute at least $100 to the Rotary Foundation’s Annual Fund and at least $25 to the global PolioPlus effort.
 
The recognition goes to:
  • Emmet Apolinario
  • James Bandeen
  • Trevor Donaldson
  • Ingrid Fields
  • Faye Herriot
  • Todd Hoadley
  • Andrew Keeler
  • Mike Isler
  • Jim Listebarger
  • Thomas McGloshen
  • Ronald Morgan
  • Dennis Muchnicki
  • Roland Pagniano, Jr.
  • Timothy Redman
  • Laura Reinbolt
  • Susan Robenalt
  • Daryl Schorsten
  • Page Cornbrock
  • Janes Warburton
  • Phil Yoder
 
ANNOUNCEMENTS
  • Next week is an important week for Dublin AM Rotary club.  Next week, our Friday morning meeting will be led by the Rotaract team
  • The February 8, Polar Bear golf outing is filling up with 53 golfers signed up, 24 hole-sponsors committed and several volunteers lines up.  “But we can do better!” says Jim Listebarger as he reminded the club that friends and family are welcome to golf, help out as volunteers and sponsor holes.  With 3 weeks to go, there is time to get involved
GUEST SPEAKER:  Tim Petska with the Joseph Group discussed the Economic Outlook for 2020.
 
Tim made no recommendations for stock or bond purchases, but rather discussed ways of thinking about this year. 
 
Possible considerations when thinking about 2020 capital markets:
1.) A wise investor focuses on scenarios, not forecasts or predictions
 
2.) It may be a good idea to consider Small caps, value style and foreign stocks when making 2020 investment decisions because they are relatively discounted compared to other stocks trading at 20X PE
 
3.) In an election year, the Fed is not as likely to modify interest rates.  This belief is driven from the thinking that the Fed may not want to appear politically motivated in making monetary decisions
 
4.) Bond performance varies inversely with interest rates.  Interest rates are at very low levels currently
 
5.) Investment considerations should include factual, macro level policy decisions and not one’s own political preferences or fears
 
Tim explained that a good amount of the equity growth in 2019 was a likely a result of stocks trading at higher PE ratios.  Further, for continued sustainable growth, it is likely that strong 2020 corporate earnings are needed for continued equity appreciation.